It has been
said that the NFL quarterback is the single most important job in all
of sports. If playing QB in the NFL is the most important job in
sports then I feel evaluating and grading NFL QBs must be the second
most important job.
There was a
day when choosing your fantasy QB was serious. This was an important
decision that you would live with the entire season. You couldn’t
just stand around all night while all the good ones get taken and
hope you are fortunate enough to have someone fall to you and you
leave the party feeling lucky. This isn’t college and that’s not
lucky, that’s sad. If you didn’t make a move for a top QB early
then you were going to struggle. But with all the recent rule
changes to help increase scoring almost every QB has value in today’s
game.
Let's take
last year as an example...
The clear-cut #1 and #2 QBs in fantasy were
Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck in everyone’s rankings. Too bad no
one was looking at their putrid offensive line play. They both
finished with disappointing seasons considering where they were
drafted. And as for the player who finished #1 last year? That would
be Cam Newton. Sounds logical today, he’s a stud! Looking back on
where he was ranked and projected before last season started, his
wide receiving core was the worst in the NFL and he wasn’t ranked
higher than 10th.
Most owners took him around 15th
out of all the QBs. I
took him in my wildly competitive auction draft league as the last QB
drafted for $1, only to trade him away for Sam Bradford, the apple of
my eye last year before the season started (I put my faith in Chip
Kelly, Get Off My Back!!!). I even threw in TE, Jordan Cameron, to
make the deal go through. What a moron! Lucky enough I was able to
pick up guys like Blake Bortles and Kurt Cousins (Ranked 29th
and 27th
in last years rankings) and ride their play to a championship!
Out of the
top tier QBs in my rankings, Tom Brady is the only one I would
target. Due to his suspension, analysts have him being drafted
anywhere from the 8th-10th
QB taken. I do not hold his suspension against him very much at all
since the position is so deep and a replacement for those 4 games can
come cheap in 10 and 12 team leagues. If playing in deeper leagues,
his suspension must be taken into consideration, but it wouldn’t
drop him too far. He finished last year as the #2 QB in fantasy. He’s
arguably the greatest QB to ever play the game. If he is falling and
you find yourself choosing between him and your 3rd
or 4th
WR or RB I would take him. Sure you will waste a roster spot on
another QB for the first 4 weeks but that shouldn’t cost you much
and there are plenty of guys going late who could do just fine in
those first 4 weeks. If you reach for Tom as the 6th
- 8th
QB off the board and after week 4 he puts up top 3 QB numbers then it
will pay off over the season.
Remember,
it’s a weekly game. If you draft a QB and he finishes in the top
10 that’s good, but if you draft 2 QBs and play the matchups the
average points from the QB position could be far greater than just
drafting a top 10 QB. This is why the last few years I have been
successful streaming the QB position. You don’t have to find the
best guy every week. You can pick against bad defenses. With the new
Collective Bargaining Agreement teams aren’t allowed to hit in
practice very much so tackling has become awful and defenses are at
an all-time low right now. Find a guy starting against the Saints or
Falcons or Cowboys or Colts or Giants or 49ers or Browns or Titans
or… you get the picture??? If you do take a top tier QB I would
recommend that you don’t waste another roster spot on a backup
unless it’s a 2 QB league or your bench is abnormally deep.
Also,
remember rule #1: draft players you love, but don’t “fall in
love” with them until you see that they are worthy. Be willing to
let them go if they aren’t preforming well enough. Last year many
owners were excited to draft Peyton Manning. He has historically
been one of the best QBs in football, so why wouldn’t he be an
excellent choice? His age and previous injuries finally seemed to
catch up with him and he struggled, leading the NFL in interceptions
most of the season while also missing several games. He was not the
Peyton I grew up watching. The biggest problem owners had was that
because he is the great Peyton Manning they couldn’t bring
themselves to drop him from their rosters until it was too late in
the season. Don’t wait too long let go of dead weight; there are
plenty of good QBs out there.
The final
advice I will give for the quarterback position is to know your
league’s scoring system. If they penalize turnovers then some of
these guys will fall in the rankings. And if they don’t penalize
them at all then these players will rise considerably. These QBs are
Eli Manning, Andrew Luck, Blake Bortles, Tony Romo. If the league you
are in rewards completions, there are a few QBs who would move up due
to the volume of passes they are projected to throw and the style of
offense they typically run: Matthew Stafford, Ryan Tannehill, Andy
Dalton, Kurt Cousins. If your league is 4 points for passing TD
instead of 6 points then I like Russell Wilson, Tyrod Taylor, and
Jameis Winston to move up due to the amount of rushing yards and
rushing TDs they get.
I ranked
the QBs in the order of how I would take them if they all cost the
same. This is a weekly game and I rank based on who I feel gives me
the best chance to win the most weeks.
These
rankings will be updated as training camps continue and we learn more
about the offenses each team is running and each player’s
situation. Good luck.
8/5/16
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