It's really not as hard as some people think it is.
Yes, Alabama is, currently, a better, more stable program. Yes, Kiffin and Saban appear to be working together well, getting to 3 straight SEC Championship games, 2 straight playoffs, and winning the playoff last year. LSU just hired their interim head coach as full-time head coach, and, yes, it's the same coach that went 10-25, and 3-21 in the SEC, as head coach at Ole Miss from 2005-07.
But that doesn't mean it couldn't work out for Lane.
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Now, obviously, Kiffin will be up for several head coaching jobs this offseason. The SEC Championship game is tomorrow, but the Kiffin news cycle is already spinning today - first off, it's being reported that he will interview in-person with Houston on Sunday for the Cougars head coaching job (and Saban is apparently pushing for this) - and it's also being reported that he could be up for several NFL offensive coordinator positions at the end of the year (which would work best because it would not happen until after the CFB Playoffs).
But, if those things don't happen, many people believe his next move will be from Tuscaloosa to Baton Rouge. Here's why that could happen.
1. Kiffin's 3 year contract at Alabama is done after this year
Lane Kiffin signed a 3 year deal to be the offensive coordinator at Alabama after the 2013 season. Doug Nussmeier "left" and joined Brady Hoke's last team at Michigan, which left Alabama without an OC. Kiffin had been brought in as an offensive analyst, and was given the offensive coordinator position immediately. He did not make much for the first 2 years because he was still being paid his buyout from USC. Before this season, he was granted a raise, up to $1.4M, but there was no extension included in this. Many believed that he would be up for head coaching jobs after this season (which is true), but not many expected LSU to be trying to woo him to the same position. There's no contract and no buyout, so Kiffin is basically a free agent.
2. Kiffin and Saban don't really get along
We don't really know how true the status of them having a rocky relationship is, but a lot of people will remember how Saban gave Kiffin an "ass-chewing" at the end of the Western Kentucky game back on September 10th. The way Kiffin goes about things is a lot different from how Saban does things. He trolls people on twitter, he's quick to throw in a verbal jab at people, and he's flashy. Saban is the complete opposite of this. Now, the 2 have worked well together, feeding off of each other to establish the best 3 year stretch of offense in Alabama history, en route to a possible 3rd straight college football playoff appearance, a 3rd straight SEC title, and a possible 2nd straight national championship, but the legendary tales of Kiffin's romps through the University of Alabama's bar scene for coeds probably doesn't sit nicely with a coach who prefers that everything be low-key.
There's a reason that Kiffin got a divorce last year while his wife was in California and he worked in Tuscaloosa.
Combine that with the fact that Kiffin and Ed Orgeron have been great friends for a long, long time (they still apparently talk every single day), have been on 3 different staffs together (at USC under Pete Carroll, at Tennessee, and at USC w/ Kiffin as coach), and it would make more sense for Kiffin to enjoy who he's working with, rather than struggling through dealing with Nick Saban.
3. Saban gets most of the credit for Alabama being good
Kiffin is flashy, and he does what he can to grab media attention. He likes the spotlight, even if he's not very good in it. His offenses have been other-worldly, especially this year with his grooming of a true-freshman QB that has turned into a heisman contender. A lot of people chalk Kiffin's success up to the fact that he's playing under Nick Saban.
One way to absolutely turn people's heads is if he were able to turn around the dumpster-fire offense in Baton Rouge, where they haven't had a respectable passing game in over a decade, if not longer. If Kiffin goes to LSU and immediately resuscitates their offense, and cures the woes that cost Les Miles his job, some would think he'll be able to take credit for that and jump to another head coaching job a little more easily than he has been able to under Nick Saban. It doesn't help that other Saban assistants have not fared very well as head coaches once they leave the mothership.
4. LSU could pay him $2M to be a coordinator
LSU is only paying Ed Orgeron $3.5M a year as head coach, freeing up plenty of space to pay coordinators outrageous money. They've already locked up defensive coordinator Dave Aranda as the highest paid coordinator in the country (guesstimates are around $1.8M per year for 3 years). They could go even higher than $2M to get Kiffin, which would be more than most non-Power 5 teams could offer to a head coach.
Put it all together - the fact that Kiffin's contract is up, his relationship with Saban is iffy, Saban gets most of the credit, Kiffin is friends with Orgeron, and LSU is going to offer some crazy money for him, and it all makes sense. Alabama has won national championships with 3 different offensive coordinators under Saban, and with Steve Sarkisian as an offensive analyst for the Tide already, it's pretty obvious Alabama is not going to get into a bidding war for Lane Kiffin.
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