Summary
People that make a lot of money for little risk don't leave for a little bit more money and a big risk.
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With that hire, all of the Power 5 jobs currently open have been filled. Here's the run down:
Texas - Tom Herman (Houston / AAC)
LSU - Ed Orgeron (hired from within staff)
Purdue - Jeff Brohm (Western Kentucky)
Indiana - Tom Allen (hired from within staff)
Oregon - Willie Taggart (South Florida / AAC)
Baylor - Matt Rhule (Temple / AAC)
There were a ton of names associated with all of those jobs. Larry Fedora (North Carolina) was brought up for LSU, Oregon and Baylor. Gary Patterson was brought up for Oregon and LSU. Purdue was always going to go small school. Indiana never even searched. Oregon brought up Dan Mullen, Jim McElwain, and James Franklin. LSU talked about Jimbo Fisher, Fedora, Mike Gundy, Dana Holgerson, and others. Baylor mentioned Fedora, Sonny Dykes (Cal), and Mike McIntyre (Colorado).
None of those guys were ever going anywhere, other than possibly Gundy, and he supposedly turned down a 10 year $60M contract from Baylor.
People that make a lot of money for little risk don't leave for a little bit more money and a big risk. Bottom line.
If you've got a cushy job where you're comfortable and already making major money, other programs have to mortgage the entire farm to be able to pull somebody like that. Jimbo Fisher was never going to LSU, because LSU couldn't afford him. Fisher already makes over $5M a year, and he's already got, arguably, the best job in the ACC, and has a much easier schedule at Florida St than he would at LSU. You've got 3 real games all year at Florida St - Clemson, Florida and, as long as Petrino is there, Louisville. That's it.
Supposedly, Fisher asked for a 10 year, $65M guaranteed contract, and a bigger budget for assistant coaches. There was just no way that LSU could afford that kind of a contract.
Coaches that are in good spots are the ones that are wanted - not the ones that don't have other options. In their current situation, if they're wanted by other schools, that usually means they're pretty successful in their current spots. Oregon was never going to pay the money it would take to get Dan Mullen. Yes, Oregon is a better program than Mississippi St. But Miss St is paying over $4M a year, and the expectations are much less in Starkville than Eugene.
The only time you have a coach that might be willing to leave where they are is if something is wrong with relationships inside the program. For example, and we'll look at college basketball for this, Buzz Williams left Marquette, where he was already making $3M per year, to take a job at Virginia Tech for only $2.3M per year over a long contract. The only reason he did this was because the school changed athletic directors shortly before he left, and he and the new AD did not get along at all. He hated working at the school. Now, those things do not usually happen. You're not going to get coaches to leave in college basketball if they're comfortable and already winning, unless it's for one of the top 10 jobs in the country, or you're just grossly overpaying for them.
Same thing applies in football.
PJ Fleck at Western Michigan went undefeated this year. He's been up for a lot of jobs - Oregon, Baylor, Purdue, etc. Apparently, he didn't want Purdue. He's banking that he'll be able to continue winning at Western Michigan and he can turn it into something bigger. There's no sense in taking a smaller job for him.
It's kinda the same thing with other Power 5 jobs. Gary Patterson isn't going to leave TCU unless somebody offers $8M a year over 5 years, and it's a situation he likes. At TCU, he built the program from the ground up. He has unlimited job security.
Fedora at North Carolina. He's only making $2M per year... but he may get another contract extension after this year (he's locked up through 2022). $2M per year only has him as the 59th highest paid coach in college football. To put that in perspective, Memphis coach Mike Novell makes about $200K less than him and is 61st highest paid, and Dave Clawson at Wake Forest makes $2.1M and is 54th. Fedora can be had, because his relationship with the school president and AD may be kinda rocky due to him bringing him Tim Beckman as a volunteer coach without running it by them, but you'll still have to pay him major money because he's got it rolling at North Carolina.
Petrino has been brought up for a ton of other jobs... but he's not leaving Louisville. The buyout for him is crazy, and he's already making almost $4M per year, and he's pretty indebted to Louisville for giving him a chance to get back into big time football after his mistakes at Arkansas. Somebody would have to pay his $10M+ buyout, and then offer $7-8M per year over about 5 years just to get him to consider it.
Coaches, nowadays, have to decide if they're fine with making $2-3M per year and being in a good, comfortable, winning situation, or if they want to risk going somewhere for $4M per year, in a spot they don't really know, where they could be fired in 3 years if they don't get things rolling. Look at Rich Rodriguez at Michigan, Charlie Strong at Texas, Will Muschamp at Florida, etc. If you don't have it turned around in 3-4 years, you're out, even if everything else is rolling, and there are things beyond your control that cause losses to come more frequently than originally thought.
College football is a cutthroat business. Why leave somewhere you're having success, already making great money, and where your family is comfortable, for a more pressure-filled situation where there are more boosters that want to tell you how to run your program.
If you're a big program and you're going to fire your head coach, you better already have your backup plan in place and ready to go.
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