Holy freakin moly. We've got this thing rolling right now. Three straight winning weeks in college football, and 6 out of 8 thus far. Last week we got tricked by Michigan and Washington St, who both won, but failed to cover in road games against conference foes. We won't be fooled this week.
This is the time of year where things get much, much tighter, so we're rolling with 4 underdogs in college games where the line is MUCH too big.
Check out our NFL picks, head-to-head biggest games, and our SEC Fantasy picks for the week below.
Gary's Gambling Picks
Current standings
CFB: 25-18-2
NFL: 6-11-1
1. Maryland (+31) @ Michigan
Maryland made this line looks a little worse than it should be by going and losing at Indiana last week, but I still know how Michigan looked last week against a bad Michigan St team, that Maryland actually beat worse the week before than the Wolverines did. Maryland HC DJ Durkin was Harbaugh's defensive coordinator last year, and Harbaugh will call off the dogs earlier in this one than he would for other teams. This is like Saban against his ex-assistants kinda stuff - he lets em keep it closer than it should be, but doesn't let them win. Same difference here - Maryland isn't bad and they'll keep with within about 3 TDs.
2. Nebraksa (+17) @ Ohio St
Ohio St has been overvalued under Meyer all year long. I explain this one a little further below, but the bottom line is that Nebraska is actually pretty good, and Ohio St has not been nearly as good lately as they were at the beginning of the year.
3. Utah St @ Wyoming (-6.5)
Utah St is known for being a covering machine, but not this year. Wyoming, however, finally has things rolling behind head coach Craig Bohl, who won't let this team just relax after handing Boise St their first loss last week. Wyoming has covered, and won, 4 straight games, including 3 as outright underdogs. Utah St has not been very good this year, and the game is in Wyoming at night. This should be at least a 10 point win for the Cowboys.
4. Texas @ Texas Tech (+3.5)
Texas is 0-4 on the road, both against the spread and straight up. At home, they're a different beast. Texas Tech finally won a close game on the road over a yearly contender last week, even if it was a down TCU team. Texas's defense is still not quite right, and this is a perfect spot for the Longhorns to think they've got things figured out, after they knocked off unbeaten Baylor in Austin last week. Texas Tech is gonna throw the ball like crazy on this Longhorns defense, and I think Tech even has a chance to pull out the win.
5. Vanderbilt (+25.5) @ Auburn
Vanderbilt, in SEC competition this year, has given up 13, 13, 20, and 16. Now, I'm not saying that they will beat Auburn, but I think they keep this game closer than people think. This defense is for real, and they're good against the run. They play great gap defense, and they stick to their assignments. The linebackers are great, and they'll do the same thing against Auburn that they've done against everyone else - keep it relatively low scoring. We still win this one at 35-10, or 31-7, so I'm confident Vandy can keep this one within the number.
6. Saints (-3.5) @ 49ers
I'm 6-11-1 in picking NFL games this year, so it's obvious I don't really know what I'm doing. The 49ers have not covered in 6 straight games, and the Saints have covered their last 4 straight, including a home win over the Seahawks last weekend. Not to mention the fact that it's not as difficult for teams to come from the Central timezone back over to the West coast. The 49ers suck, and the Saints ain't great, but they're better than this team, especially right now.
7. Cowboys (-7.5) @ Browns
Rolling with the same theory here. Cowboys have won and covered 6 straight games, while the Browns are winless, going only 2-6 against the number on the year. The Cowboys do everything that the Browns don't defend well - and I wouldn't expect that to change this week. The Browns still have not listed a starter, but it won't matter. Cowboys win by 2 TDs.
Our combined picks are...
| Gary | Chris | |||
| 11/5 | Maryland (+31) @ Michigan | Oklahoma St +2.5 @ Ka St | ||
| 11/5 | Nebraska (+17) @ Ohio St | Arkansas +5 over Florida | ||
| 11/5 | Utah St @ Wyoming (-6.5) | Nebraska +16.5 @ Ohio St | ||
| 11/5 | Texas @ Texas Tech (+3.5) | TCU +7.5 @ Baylor | ||
| 11/5 | Vanderbilt (+25.5) @ Auburn | |||
| 11/6 | NFL: Saints (-3.5) @ 49ers | NFL: Chiefs -7.5 over Jags | ||
| 11/6 | NFL: Cowboys (-7.5) @ Browns | NFL: Cowboys -7.5 @ Browns | ||
| 11/6 | NFL: Raiders +1 over Broncos |
Head to Head matchups
The week's biggest games in CFB and the NFL.
| Alabama (-8) @ LSU | Alabama (-8) | LSU +8 | |
| Nebraska @ Ohio St (-17) | Neb (+17) | Nebraska +17 | |
| Florida (-5.5) @ Arkansas | Fla (-5.5) | Arkansas +5.5 | |
| TCU @ Baylor (-7.5) | TCU (+7.5) | TCU +7.5 | |
| Iowa @ Penn St (-7.5) | Penn St (-7.5) | Iowa +7.5 | |
| NFL: Steelers @ Ravens (-1.5) | Steelers (+1.5) | Steelers +1.5 | |
| NFL: Broncos (-1) @ Raiders | Raiders (+1) | Raiders +1 |
Here's the reasoning behind my picks...
- In just 2 short weeks, people have forgotten how dominant Alabama has looked all season. In their last game, they took the now #4 ranked Texas A&M Aggies behind the woodshed in a 33-14 win in Tuscaloosa. The week before that, they completely killed Tennessee's spirit in a 49-10 win in Knoxville. This team has been absolutely rolling. 3 weeks ago, this was a 15 point line in Las Vegas, and people were trying to figure out if it would be high enough. If there's one thing that we know about Nick Saban, he will have his team ready to play in Baton Rouge. This year, it's Ed Orgeron on the other sideline. LSU still cannot throw the football (yes, the numbers are up, but they've played Southern Miss, Ole Miss, and Missouri - not exactly 3 defensive juggernauts), and if you don't believe me, watch some game tape of Danny Etling. He's off on his throws, he puts the ball in bad spots, and he's thrown an interception in each of his last 2 games. I don't think Alabama blows these guys out, but 8 doesn't seem like enough points in this spot.
- Nebraska proved that they can play with the big boys, even in a loss at Wisconsin last Saturday night in overtime. Things are still not quite right with Ohio St on offense, or, honestly, on defense. Northwestern gave them everything they wanted, and that's 4 straight games that they've not looked right. Granted, it was against Indiana, at Wisconsin, at Penn St, and Northwestern... but at some point it becomes a trend, and eventually becomes your identity. Things are not going well in Columbus, and Nebraska knows they need this one for their Big10 Championship hopes. I think the Cornhuskers give them everything they want and then some - it'll stay within the 17 points.
- Florida has a knack for slowing down offenses, and, even though Arkansas is coming off a bye, I still can't get the Alabama, Texas A&M, and Auburn beatings out of my head. The Razorback offense is regressing, and Florida's offense is slowing starting to click again now that Luke Del Rio is back healthy. I think Florida wins by a touchdown while slowing down the game with their rushing attack, and their swarming defense may be good enough for a score in this one.
- TCU has not looked very good this year, but if there's a team they really hate in this conference, it's Baylor. And I just don't think Baylor is very good without Art Briles. The Baylor defense, while it's looked good against terrible competition, did not look great last weekend at Texas, as they gave up the game winning drive at the end of the game. I expect fireworks in this one, and I don't see either team winning by more than a touchdown, which is why I love having the hook here. TCU gets their legs back under them and their offense shows some life in a close one in Waco.
- Penn St has been absolutely rolling, beating the mess out of Purdue last week after beating Ohio St at night in Happy Valley the week before. Penn St has won 4 straight and we've all seen how crazy it can be at night in Happy Valley. The offense is clicking, with Saquon Barkley rushing for more than 200 yards in 2 of the last 3 games, and QB Trace McSorley has not turned the football over since the Michigan game back on Sept 24th. Iowa is the same they always have been. Try to make games ugly and drag them through the mud while hoping for a low-scoring game. But Happy Valley at night is going to be too crazy. I think Penn St wins by at least 2 TDs.
- The Steelers had a bye week after losing 2 straight at the Dolphins and to the Patriots. Ben Roethlisberger is now listed as probable, along with Antonio Brown, and I'm still not sold on the Ravens, who have now lost 4 straight after starting out the season 3-0 against some pretty terrible teams. I'm going to bet against the Ravens all season, because this just does not look like a good football team, and this cart's about to stop now that the wheels have fallen off.
- The Raiders offense, behind MVP candidate Derek Carr, is absolutely clicking right now, and the Bronco's defense is as well... but, there a couple of things that tip this one in Oakland's favor: 1. Denver is #8 in total defense, but only 25th against the run and Oakland is a sneaky good rushing team, good enough for 5th in the league. Running the football can open up passing lanes against those safeties. 2. Oakland is great in close games, going 5-1 in games that are decided by a touchdown or less. Del Rio gambles because he believes in his players, and they play better because of it. I think they'll show up in primetime for this guy and pull out a home win.
| Week 10 | Gary | Chris | |
| QB | Jacob Eason GA | Chad Kelly OM | |
| RB | Jordan Scarlett FL | Akeem Judd OM | |
| WR | JaJuan Jennings UT | Jeff Badet UK | |
| Defense/ST | Ole Miss | Tennessee |
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